Today, we have two NCAA college basketball picks: one from the Big Ten and one from the SEC. We have taken all odds from PointsBet Sportsbook (read our review here).
Penn State Nittany Lions @ Indiana Hoosiers: Under 141 (+115)
On Saturday, I recommended taking the over in the Illinois vs. Indiana game, with hopes that IU would do their part scoring the ball and propel us to victory.
Hand up on that one – as an IU alumnus and fan, I should have known better than to rely on this Archie Miller-led mess that is Indiana basketball. The Hoosiers play great defense, but their offense is just horrifying to watch.
Guys standing around aimlessly, long and drawn-out possessions leading to turnovers and contested looks, and sub-par guard play that leads to just a slow-moving mess.
Well, part of gambling is learning from prior mistakes and using not just data, but the eye test as well. If IU and Illinois, one of the top-scoring teams in the country, combined for 129 points, I just don’t see how the Hoosiers and Nittany Lions can get over the 140 mark.
Penn State, not surprisingly, is the higher scoring of these two teams and scores 77.3 points per contest. However, they are averaging just 71.3 points per game over the last three and head to Bloomington to face an IU team that doesn’t score, but they do defend.
IU allows an average of just 63.3 points per game to their opponents, and that number drops down to 61.7 when they are playing on their home floor this season.
Like I mentioned before and have always preached – data, data, data! And while data is amazing, it can’t predict games perfectly for us. Otherwise, we’d all be sailing on our superyachts and sadly not reading this article. The other piece of the equation is the eye-test and coming from someone who has watched many IU games this season, I feel very comfortable recommending the under here.
The Pick: Under 141 (+115)
Arkansas Razorbacks @ Auburn Tigers: Arkansas -3.5 (+105)
Now let’s head South for an SEC college basketball battle between undefeated Arkansas and 6-2 Auburn.
The Razorbacks have been on fire to start the season, coming out of the gate 8-0 and currently ranked 6th in the nation in points per game with 90.
They have four players averaging double-digit points with a fifth, Jalen Tate, currently sitting at 9.9 points per contest.
Sure, they haven’t played an in-conference opponent yet and their schedule has been a bit of a cakewalk. But 90 points per game is 90 points per game. The ball isn’t falling into the hoop by accident.
The reason I harp on this so much is not just to emphasize the scoring capabilities of Arkansas, but also to highlight the defensive ineptitude of Auburn. Auburn is 150th in the nation in points allowed per game this season. And they are now hosting the 6th-highest-scoring team in the country in what could be a disaster.
One unique stat that I really like about Arkansas is that they are 7th in the nation in 1st half points per game, scoring 43.6 per 1st half through their first eight games. This is a key stat to look at, especially when teams are playing on the road.
If Arkansas can come out with a quick punch and take the lead early on in this one, there’s a good chance they don’t look back.
This being the first in-conference game for either team obviously puts the Razorbacks on #upsetwatch heading on the road, but in today’s college basketball environment, they won’t feel the usual wrath that they are used to from the fans and I think they can take care of business here.
The Pick: Arkansas -3.5 (+105)
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