Indiana Hoosiers @ Illinois Fighting Illini: Over 145.5 (-110)
After a Christmas Day filled with only NCAA college basketball games from the Big Ten, you’d think we could use a break, right? Wrong. Off to Champaign for our first pick today.
The Hoosiers head to Illinois to face an Illini team that is ranked 8th in the country in points per game. This game will feature an Indiana team that likes to slow things down a bit and an Illinois team that can push the pace and put up major points.
In this clash of two styles, I think it’s the home team that sets the pace for this one and turns it into a high-scoring shootout.
Illinois is the 11th-most efficient offense coming into this game. And they should really force the Hoosiers to play their style and keep up. The big question is if Indiana can handle the scoring load.
The Hoosiers are just 3-5 on overs this year to start, which might look scary, but it’s not as bad as it looks. Their most recent game against Northwestern went over. And the three games before that didn’t quite get there but went under by an average of just 2 points. They are close!
Now, looking at Illinois, overs are 8-1 in their games so far this season. They’re scoring at a ridiculous rate and forcing their opponents to score well above their season averages in the process. Their last 7 games have gone over. And if you look at just their three games in the Big Ten so far, they’ve gone over by an average of 26.3 points. 26.3!
I don’t see this being the game that breaks the streak of overs for Illinois. If the Hoosiers can manage to get to 65 points or more, I think Illinois can handle the rest.
The Pick: Over 145.5 (-110)
Ohio State Buckeyes @ Northwestern Wildcats: Northwestern +3.5 (-112)
Oh look, more Big Ten college basketball!
This time, we have 7-1 Ohio State heading to Evanston to take on a 5-1 Northwestern team. I’m going to do something I don’t usually do in this one, and that’s recommend a moneyline play.
I really like Northwestern at home in this one today.
The Wildcats are returning home after their first road game of the season, where they took care of business against Indiana. So far in this young season, Northwestern is 4-1 on their home floor.
What I like most about them is that they remain home underdogs after being underdogs in their last two games and winning them both outright. I think it’s time for people to wake up and realize that this team is actually a good one.
Those two games were also their first two games against Big Ten opponents. And if I were them, I’d feel a little disrespected being underdogs against another Big Ten team at home.
I do realize that Ohio State is not a pushover. They are 7-1 and coming off back-to-back wins against UCLA and Rutgers. But their only loss of the season did come on the road against Purdue. And while there may not be fans in the stands, it does still play a factor.
The Buckeyes are walking into a tough one today. And the pressure is on them to handle an opponent that most people think they should beat.
I think that plays into Northwestern’s favor, and while I can’t fault anyone for taking the points, I’m confident enough in them to take them to win this one straight up at +145.
The Pick: Northwestern ML (+145)
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