MLB Season Record: 15-13
Here at The Odds Factory, our #1 goal is to mold you into your bookie’s worst nightmare. The best way to do that is with our TomBox algorithm, which simulates each game 10,000 times and projects results with startling accuracy. There’s a full slate of MLB games today and tonight, so don’t bet without checking our top picks.
In a matchup of the two bottom-dwellers of the AL Central, TomBox is projecting a 60% chance of victory for the Minnesota Twins, who battle the 9-24 Detroit Tigers this afternoon. The key to Minnesota’s chances tonight will be starter José Berríos, who’s forecasted with 53% certainty to have a Quality Start. If Berríos comes through with the QS, then the Twins’ winning percentage balloons to 73%. Bet on Berríos tonight and take the Twins straight up.
The TomBox algorithm is projecting a tight matchup tonight, with a predicted final score of 4.2-4.2, and both teams with winning percentages between 45% and 55%. Both starters should fare well tonight as Frankie Montas from Oakland has a 53% Quality Start chance, and Tyler Glasnow from Tampa has a 50% chance of a quality start on his end. Austin Meadows from Tampa will be driving the offense, with a 39% chance of a 3+ hits, walks, and RBI game, so hammer any player props you see with him and for Oakland to easily cover the 1.5 runs here tonight.
Expect a tight, low-scoring matchup in tonight’s battle between Seattle and Texas, as Rangers starter Kohei Arihara is projected with 52% certainty to have a quality start, which leads to a Texas win in 78% of simulations. The runs that will come should be courtesy of the big man Joey Gallo, who averages 2.35 hits + walks + RBI and could easily go off for a big game. The TomBox algorithm is projecting this one as 7 total runs, so take the under here.