We made it! The college hoops national championship game. The end of March Madness. The conclusion of one of the wildest NCAA tournaments in a long time.
More double-digit seeds won first-round games than any other tournament ever, including UCLA, who reached the Final Four as an 11-seed. And the Bruins nearly reached tonight’s final, coming within a halfcourt heave from Gonzaga superstar Jalen Suggs of pulling off the upset of the decade.
But the Zags pulled through, and after steamrolling through the tournament before Saturday’s thriller, are now one win away from the first perfect men’s hoops season since Indiana in 1976. The Bulldogs are looking for their first national title, but so is Baylor, which crushed Houston to reach the final in a battle of number one seeds.
But who’s gonna cover? Who will win? How many points are gonna be scored? You know our TomBox AI algorithm has the expert, educated answers after simulating this matchup thousands of times. Let’s see what it has to say:
Baylor Bears @ Gonzaga Bulldogs
Moneyline Pick
Baylor Bears @ Gonzaga Bulldogs: Gonzaga ML (-190)
Just like Gonzaga’s first 31 games of the season, the TomBox algorithm expects a win to achieve perfection. The Bulldogs are expected to shoot 49% from the field with a 36.7-29.1 rebounding advantage. Drew Timme is expected to lead the way for the Zags with 18.1 points and 6.7 boards. The TomBox algorithm gives Gonzaga a 66.7% chance to win its first national title tonight.
Point-Spread Pick
Baylor Bears @ Gonzaga Bulldogs: Gonzaga -4.5 (-105)
Why is Baylor expected to keep things close but not close enough to cover? The Bears are expected to commit 11.8 turnovers, barely more than Gonzaga’s 11. They’re also projected to absolutely light it up from three, hitting 10.4 of them on 43.9% shooting. That crushes the Bulldogs’ 5.5 made triples on 29.6% from the field.
But the TomBox algorithm expects Gonzaga to take an 82.4-75.5 victory, a few more than the spread requires to cover. We’re giving the Bulldogs a 57.7% chance to win by at least five.
Over/Under Pick
Baylor Bears @ Gonzaga Bulldogs: Under 159.5 (-110)
While 75.5 is a lot of points for Gonzaga to allow, it’s not nearly as many UCLA put up on Friday. And it’s also not enough for this game to hit the over. While MaCio Teague is expected to lead all scorers with 20.4 points on 3.7 made three-pointers, Baylor won’t score enough to get the over. The TomBox algorithm gives the under a 53.3% chance of coming through.
Thanks for following along with us all college hoops season and keep it locked for the TomBox algorithm’s NBA and MLB picks!
