It’s a Monday during March Madness which means one thing – there was yet another weekend of wild finishes and my brain is once again completely melted. This tournament simply refuses to play by the rules. And after three rounds of games, just eight teams remain. And boy do they run the gamut. We’ve got three #1 seeds, a #6 seed led by a brother-brother duo, and two teams looking to either become or tie for the lowest-seeded teams to make the Final Four (#11 UCLA and #12 Oregon State). Oh, and our 3-seed nearly lost to a 15-seed team that re-introduced blowjob jokes to the American public.
Today we’re breaking down tonight’s two matchups: the Oregon State Beavers versus Houston Cougars and Baylor Bears versus Arkansas Razorbacks. If you’re betting tonight, make sure you’re signing up with PointsBet through this link, use promo code TOF150, and bet $20 on any NCAA tournament spread or moneyline, you’ll get $150 in free bets if any point is scored during the game. Like any point at all. We’re literally giving money away, so sign up today.
Smart Money Bets for Monday’s Elite Eight Action
Oregon State Beavers @ Houston Cougars: Under 129 (-105)
When Max Asmas’s last-second three-pointer rattled out and Arkansas knocked off Oral Roberts, the Oregon State Beavers immediately became the story of the tournament. And for good reason. The surprise winners of the Pac-12 tournament and 9 of their last 10, they are streaking at the right team. Their defense is suffocating. And senior guard Ethan Thompson has stepped his game up in the tournament, going for 20 points and 7 rebounds on average over the last 3 games, after averaging 15 points to go with 4 assists and 4 rebounds during the regular season.
Tonight, Thompson may meet his match against junior Houston guard Quentin Grimes. The Cougars have a balanced attack. But the offense undoubtedly goes through Grimes, who averages 18 PPG along with 6 rebounds and 2 assists. Tonight’s matchup is going to come down to these two guys. If Houston can slow down Thompson and force him to be more of a distributor than a scorer, then I can’t see the Beavers having the firepower to hang.
The Point Total
I’m staying away from any spread betting on this game. The line is currently at Houston -8, which is a very tricky line to straddle. While Oregon State has been playing out of their minds the past few weeks and is 16-5 against the spread as an underdog, Houston is a really tough matchup for them. However, I love this 129-point total. Both teams are very strong defensively and grind teams to dust for their wins. I’m predicting Oregon State to keep it close for the first two-thirds of the game before Houston pulls away at the end in a low-scoring battle.
Take the under 129 here and laugh your way to the bank.
Arkansas Razorbacks @ Baylor Bears: Arkansas +8 (-110)
The last matchup of the night is between two teams that had to come from behind in the Sweet Sixteen to survive. Arkansas showed its toughness by holding off a plucky Oral Roberts team, roaring back from an early deficit to emerge with the 72-70 win. Meanwhile, Baylor leaned on their interior offense and suffocating defense to overwhelm Villanova 62-51. While both teams struggled out of the gate, their second-half rallies have revealed the strengths that they’ll lean on tonight.
The Bears rely heavily on their three-point shooting, and this simply wasn’t falling on Saturday night. However, they showed that they could still get it done when their long-range shots abandon them, dominating in the paint with a 23-40 shooting night that sealed the deal. They also had an impressive defensive performance from guard Davion Mitchell, who also added in 14 points and seems to be playing his way into a first-round draft position. On the flip side, Arkansas showcased their versatility, as Jalen Tate took over from Justin Smith, the Razorbacks tournament MVP so far, and led the team to victory. Tonight, they’ll look for Moses Moody, their star freshman, to elevate his game. After leading the team in scoring with 17 PPG during the year, he’s been just 7-29 this tournament.
Keeping It Close
I like this matchup a lot for the Arkansas Razorbacks, especially after seeing how Villanova’s big guards gave the Baylor Bears fits on Saturday. With Jalen Tate and Moses Moody both standing over 6’6, they could shut down Jared Butler and MaCio Teague the same way Villanova did. While I do think that Baylor’s threes will fall tonight and their experience will prevail in the end, if Moody can bring his best on both sides of the court, Arkansas has a chance to keep this close. The Razorbacks are getting flack for having two of their wins come from very high seeds (14-seed Colgate and 15-seed Oral Roberts). But they knocked off a tough Texas Tech team and remain capable of playing great basketball. While I think Baylor moves on to the Final Four, I’m hammering the Arkansas -8 spread tonight.
